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Hurricane Kenneth-What a Surprise!
11-21-2011, 12:29 PM
Post: #1
Hurricane Kenneth-What a Surprise!
Overnight, a CAT 1 hurricane developed and they are calling this one a super storm. Hurricane season ends on November 30th for Hawaii, so a late season hurricane shouldn't be no surprise but it looked like hurricane season was completely over.
All computer models for Hurricane Kenneth shows it doing a straight beeline for the Hawaiian Islands and traditionally, late season storms do move westward towards the Hawaiian Islands.
Of course, it's too soon to judge what this hurricane will do and where it will go but the fact that it went from nothing to a Cat 1 in a matter of only a few hours is truly a surprise. This storm has already proven itself and to not be taken lightly.
I have included a link to a weather map that tracks storms and hurricanes in the Pacific over a 12 hour period. You can click on this link daily as it updates daily automatically.
Also, don't forget that I have a link to NOAA Radio on this forum if you want to listen to the current and future weather for the Hawaiian Islands.

Here is the link for that map:

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_...oop-12.gif
Saigontodd Find all posts by this user
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11-22-2011, 12:31 AM
Post: #2
RE: Hurricane Kenneth-What a Surprise!
Oh boy, what a surprise since my first post of a tropical storm to a Cat 1 hurricane overnight. In just a few hours, it's turned into a Cat 2 hurricane and still marching towards Hawaii.
This hurricane has shown that it's full of surprises with it's well define eye wall and is destine to be a Cat 3 hurricane within the next few hours.It is now packing winds of 105 mph with gusts of 127 mph.
Even if it fizzes out, it will bring us the much needed rain that we need so badly here in Hawaii. Yes, it's hard to believe that we need the rain but it is true.
Usually, hurricanes at this time of the year traditionally move westerly just to the south of us and then turn northeast into Hawaii like Hurricane Inki did in 1992 and clipped Kauai pretty good. Hurricane Inki killed 9 people including one person here on Oahu and caused something like $5 billion dollars in damage.
Even though Hurricane Kenneth is still 3000 miles away from Hilo, but... that's not very far for a Cat 3 hurricane with a 1500 mile diameter. This is the very type of hurricane the Civil Defense of Hawaii has been warning us about. The locals here say that we traditionally get one of these late season hurricanes about once every 20 years that affects Hawaii in a big way but then again...maybe not?
The last one that came barreling towards Hawaii like this had the southern winds blow it's top off and turned into nothing more than tropical rains for us here.
I think we're in pretty good shape though since many of the trees here were trimmed for APEC. Trimming of the trees are important as to prevent tree branches from falling on power lines with all the heavy winds.
The second biggest threat from the super strong winds is from blowing roofs and panels off of buildings and houses. What is left behind is nails everywhere and giving repair crews flat tires every few blocks while they are trying to do their jobs whether it's to cut and clear trees or repair downed power lines,those nails are a nightmare.
Either way, it's all about planning for the worst and hoping for the best. Still want to move and live in paradise? Whatever happens, I still love this place and never want to move away. In fact, I've completely lost interest in traveling anywhere else. As they say here, you work for five days and then take two days vacation,lol.
Saigontodd Find all posts by this user
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11-22-2011, 05:48 AM (This post was last modified: 11-22-2011 06:00 AM by WonderinginWaikiki.)
Post: #3
RE: Hurricane Kenneth-What a Surprise!
Wow, what a surprise! Forget about Cat 3, how about skipping that and going straight to Cat 4 instead. That is exactly what has happen here with Hurricane Kenneth. It was just a few hours ago that I post this hurricane would become a Category 3 hurricane and it looks like that only happen for a short time before becoming a Category 4 hurricane.
It is now a Cat 4 at 145 mph winds with 173 mph gusts and moving due west at 11 mph. To make matters worse for Hawaii, the Northeasterly winds are starting to kick in and actually working as a steering mechanism to keep it south instead of allowing it to move into cooler waters to the north.
So...What a surprise is an understatement for the weather community. It's still too early to predict whether or not this hurricane will effect Hawaii or not but...all computer models are starting to say that it will and sooner than expected.
The weather community is now saying that Saturday could be the arrive date of Hurricane Kenneth in Hawaiian waters but again, it's too early to tell. It's also too early to judge whether travel plans to Hawaii should be altered. Sometimes tropical storms that develop this fast can dissipate just as fast also. At this point, I am praying for that outcome but I have a feeling that Hurricane Kenneth will soon become the focus of our news here.
I would also like to correct something here that I stated on the very first post, hurricane season is suppose to end November 1st and not the 30th. So maybe this hurricane is a cause of alarms here and what has everyone's concern.
NOAA Radio is now instructing people to form disaster preparedness plans, to know where your evacuation shelters are and what to do in case of an emergency. To pack extra medications in waterproof bags or containers and have a plan for your pets.
As they say, "Disaster Preparedness is an individual responsibility." Don't try to drive over roads that are ponding, "Turn around, don't drown."
All the information on this subject is located in the front of your phone books including a list of disaster shelters and shelters that also takes pets. You can also visit the website of the Hawaii Red Cross at http://www.hawaiiredcross.org and also http://www.honolulu.gov for additional information.
Also, Hawaii News Now has an iphone app that you can download straight onto your iphone simply by taking a snapshot with your device.
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11-22-2011, 09:50 AM (This post was last modified: 11-22-2011 10:31 AM by WonderinginWaikiki.)
Post: #4
RE: Hurricane Kenneth-What a Surprise!
I wish I had some good news about Hurricane Kenneth but it just keeps get worse by the hour. The average hurricane runs about 1003mb to 998mb and lower the number of millibars, the more powerful a hurricane is or becomes. Hurricane Kenneth is running about 943 millibars and that is why it is so powerful and dangerous. It is now moving west at 13 mph and is currently located 2700 miles from Hawaii.
So Hurricane Kenneth is moving faster and stronger by the hour. Now Hurricane Inki in 1992 ended up coming on shore in Kauai as a category 1 hurricane but was only a category 3 hurricane before it landed. This one has a strong chance of becoming a category 5 hurricane and could still be a weak category 2 or a very strong category 1 if it reaches landfall.
Now the worst case scenario according to the Department of Emergency Management for Honolulu is that Honolulu gets hit by the faster side of any hurricane and note that no hurricane has ever hit Honolulu and Waikiki since this city was built. The building codes here are at a rating of 80 mph, where as Guam's building codes are rated for 170 mph.
So these buildings have never taken a direct hit from a hurricane nor have they experienced a storm surge of 20 feet either.
Below is a copy of the latest advisory from NOAA to give you an idea of the data that I pour over before posting updates here on this forum. You may not understand everything that you are reading and hopefully by this time tomorrow, I can provide better news...but Hurricane Kenneth has proven to be very unpredictable.


Hurricane Kenneth Forecast/Advisory Number 12
Hurricane Kenneth Advisory Number 12

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 221450
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
700 AM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

...KENNETH STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...STRONGEST LATE
SEASON EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 113.9W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE KENNETH WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST. KENNETH IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KENNETH IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...100 PM PST.

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 221448
TCMEP3
Saigontodd Find all posts by this user
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11-22-2011, 11:03 AM
Post: #5
RE: Hurricane Kenneth-What a Surprise!
Forecasters say Hurricane Kenneth has strengthened even more into a Category 4 storm in the eastern Pacific, although there is no current threat to land. It is the strongest late-season hurricane in that area on record.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Tuesday that Kenneth has maximum sustained winds near 145 mph. The storm was centered about 750 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico, but was moving away from the coast.

It is moving west at 13 mph.

Kenneth is expected to start weakening on Wednesday. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

The eastern Pacific hurricane season ends Nov. 30.
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11-23-2011, 07:11 AM
Post: #6
RE: Hurricane Kenneth-What a Surprise!
Great post there MauiLiving! Welcome to our ohana forum.

Wow,what a difference a good night of sleep can make. While I slept, Hurricane Kenneth slowed down to a Cat 1 hurricane but is still at 978 millibars, which still makes it a very strong hurricane until it gets above 1000 millibars. It is also still moving west at 9mph and is about 2500 miles from Hawaii. It still has winds of 90mph with gusts up to 125mph but no longer the threat it was before. What a surprise hurricane though and a record breaker.
It is hopeful that Hurricane Kenneth will be downgraded further and that all those clouds will get caught up in our trade winds and give Hawaii some much needed rain. On a good note though, it will be dry and sunny weather for Hawaii on Thanksgiving Day. Have a happy turkey day everyone and thanks for following this thread.
Saigontodd Find all posts by this user
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